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Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Brazilian Agricultural Sector

José Féres, Eustáquio J. Reis, Juliana Speranza

[2008]

Abstract: This paper aims at estimating the effects of climate change on the Brazilian agriculture both in terms of agricultural profitability and land values. To accomplish this task, we estimate two econometric models: the fixed-effects model proposed by Deschênes and Greenstone (2007) and the hedonic model proposed by Mendelsohn et al. (1994). Both models are estimated for a panel of municipalities covering the period 1970-1995. Simulation results suggest that the overall impact of climate change will be quite modest for the Brazilian agriculture in the medium term, but these impacts are considerably more severe in the long term.